It has been two years since Russian president Vladimir Putin announced the beginning of the “special military operation” in Ukraine. While much ink has been spilled trying to analyze the events over the past two years, we can firmly state some truths.
Putin, Russian officials, and Russian forces have wrought destruction upon Ukraine. Originally, Putin hoped for a quick victory, anticipating Russia would take Kyiv within days and force the capitulation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his cabinet. While Russian claims of “denazification” and “desatanization” as justification for its actions are ridiculous, they draw on key features of Russian nationalism and of historical memory, particularly the Soviet victory over Nazism. Putin instrumentalizes this history in an attempt to unify the nation. Putin has also used the war to shore up his power at home, becoming more controlling, silencing protest and opposition. Although flickers of discontent have appeared – including from those protesting Alexei Navalny’s death, silent protest in support for Ukraine, and the ill-fated Yevgeny Prigozhin “coup” attempt (in reality a protest against the Russian military leadership and their failures in Ukraine) – Many Russians appear to have a general ambivalence, if not tacit support, for the war, based on Russian polling data.
Putin, Russian officials, and Russian state media are shameless in their rhetoric towards Ukrainians, openly spitting genocidal epithets, denying Ukrainian identity, and mocking the West for its support for Ukraine. Russian forces couple this with violence to Ukrainians and the Ukrainian nation. Countless accounts exist of Russian forces committing war crimes or atrocities against Ukrainians, and an increasing number of reports document the Russification in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.
Ukraine, on the other hand, has shown remarkable resilience. It resisted the initial Russian advance in February and March 2022 and made notable gains in liberating some of its territory. Zelenskyy has established himself as an effective war-time president, showing incredible bravery by visiting Ukrainian soldiers on the front line. Ukrainians show their bravery by living in a warzone, where Russian terror bombing makes death possible at any point, yet they hope to regain some normalcy.
Ukrainians also understand what this war is about. As talks of peace negotiations echo in opinion pieces in Western media, spurred by vague statements from Russian leaders, the reality is that Russia has shown no willingness to consider any peace settlement that does not recognize Russian control over vast amounts of Ukraine. Russian occupation means grave violence to Ukrainians; for this reason, Ukrainians continue to fight. They have no other choice. Territorial swaps to “save Ukraine” ring hollow. They merely freeze the conflict, allow Russia to rearm while devastating Ukrainians in occupied territories, and remove the one benefit Ukraine has – attention from the West.
But that attention is dwindling. Two years after the escalation began – ten years after Putin invaded Crimea – the consensus that developed around supporting Ukraine is showing cracks. Although many nations, including Canada, have provided significant economic, humanitarian, and military aid over the last two years, it has not always come as quickly as necessary. Particularly today, as Ukrainian forces withdraw from Avdiivka, the slow-drip provision of military aid is having notable effects. Meanwhile, Russia has geared its economy for war. Putin has reportedly told the Chinese leader Xi Jinping that Russia can fight for five years. With this dwindling consensus and rumours of another round of Russian mobilization, it is very possible Putin may elect to wait until Western support for Ukraine ends. He may realize he can take what he wishes later.
The reality is that the West’s hesitancy to provide all the resources that Ukraine needs to defeat Russia is the main reason this war continues. 2022 showed Ukrainian success, ingenuity, and ability to use Western weaponry. Imagine what 2023 could have looked like if Western nations had been more proactive and aggressive in providing the necessary military resources for Ukraine.
Instead, some pine for the world of pre-February 2022. That world is gone and never will return. Instead, Russian leaders have been clear in wanting to wipe out Ukraine, and to stand up to the West in doing so. 2024 will be hard to predict, but Ukraine needs the support from its allies, and Russia must be defeated, or the lessons its leaders learn will only embolden them.
Oleksa Drachewych 